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Welcome back listeners to the overlap podcast.

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If you are just joining us for the first time, my name is Joshua.

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And with me is my co-host, Will.

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We talk about weird things, a combination of politics and AI and

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technology and things that are going on today, as well as history and

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historical lessons viewed through our current lens or something to that effect.

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Today, we have a fantastic episode for you called, can this country be saved?

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Can this country be saved?

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Talking about, you know, not our country, but a civilization that's currently in

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decline, can they recover?

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Is it possible?

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Welcome to the overlap.

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If you are joining us after listening to us for a couple of times, you know, how

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we typically go, so if you just wait just a second, I'm going to cue in the audio.

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Like I said, welcome to the overlap.

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I'm Joshua and I'm will, and he is will.

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Will, how are you doing today?

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I'm doing my brother.

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I'm doing sometimes it's a hard day.

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Sometimes it's a long day.

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But it's always a good day for the overlap and all days got in.

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That's the good thing, right?

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Exactly.

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And we're coming to the close of one now.

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So look, we live in a period of cognitive dissonance, right?

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A time of AI driven, slop art and a looming climate crisis.

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That's going to probably end up with all of us just exploding into the sun.

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Kind of a time of instantaneous global communication and brutal

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19th century style land wars.

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A time of billionaires like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel and what's the Bezos guy?

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Doesn't he own Amazon?

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Of course he does.

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Planning to colonize Mars while our own planet's ecosystems completely collapse

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from the ceiling to the ozone layer, to the ground.

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Yep.

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And completely on brand.

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We're going to call this time period in which all of these things

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are converging, the overlap.

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Meh.

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Not to be confused with the wonderful, phenomenal show, The Overlap, which

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is available on many platforms.

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Although I find his platforms, this is, this is the moment when the systems of

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the old world and the old world, which is, you know, the, the, the sort of the past,

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right, the yesteryear, the thing that our grandparents and great grandparents

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wistfully longed for when those systems are decaying, but the new world, for better

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or worse, has not yet fully arrived.

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You know, it's that, that, that new year's baby hasn't been born yet.

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You're probably feeling it right now.

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You felt it all along.

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You're like, why is it weird?

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Right.

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And you're living in two timelines and you're seeing them, like converge and

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collide in that feeling of dissonance, the sense that progress and profound decay

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can exist at the exact same time is the classic feeling of a civilization in

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transition.

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Or more to the point, a civilization in decline.

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Dun, dun, dun.

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Which brings us to kind of the central question of this episode and kind of the

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point, right?

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A question that's become both impossible to ignore and also impossible to quantify.

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We're kind of living in our own crazy, absurd, over the top overlap.

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And yes, sorry, if you're, if you're, if you're not in the branding world, you

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might start to hate how many times we use the overlap in this episode, but in the

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United States, essentially we've witnessed a president who, after an election,

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allegedly of dual, you know, certification and all that stuff by, by the Supreme

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Court and no, Supreme Court doesn't certify elections.

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The vice president of the United States, Congress, the Senate, yada, yada, yada

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attempted to prevent a peaceful transfer of power, uh, who's spoken of being a, a

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dictator on day one and who's stated political goal is the executive

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aggrandizement, the systematic dismantling of every single institution that are

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designed to check the power of the office of the president.

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And historians and political scientists are now, I mean, it's not too recent, but

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it's getting more obvious, they're drawing parallels to the fall of the Roman Republic.

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We're seeing a tyranny, um, I hate this word, but unprecedented in its history,

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uh, the replacement of the rule of the people with the domination of one man and

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his wealthiest friends.

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So, yeah.

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Yeah.

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So like, I mean, I guess the big question that we're, we're trying to answer and

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we're, we're having for ourselves and we hope, we hope our listeners out there are also

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experiencing this same existential crisis, but can it even be saved?

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Can, can a country, can a civilization, can an entire culture in decline ever

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actually return to greatness.

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Yeah.

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This is that moment when you watch the action movie and the, the plane is

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about to crash, or the building at the end of the runway and they're pulling back

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and they're yanking back on the stick as hard as they can, and you're asking

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yourself, is this, is this going to be permanent?

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Is this like, are they, are they dead forever or is there something that they,

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can they turn it around?

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And, uh, history as it turns out.

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Yeah.

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We're the narrator that pops in, right?

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Like, will they ever pull up?

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Are they going to survive?

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Check out next week on.

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Exactly.

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Tune in next week on the Bee Team.

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But, uh, history as it turns out has some very specific and often

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uncomfortable answers to this question.

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Yeah.

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When you hear the word societal collapse, what do you see Will?

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Well, so I'll tell you what most people seem to see is that they see the Mad Max,

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right?

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They see these ruined cities, biker gangs, cannibalism, you know.

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I mean, eventually.

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Eventually, right.

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Yeah.

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The decline leads to a cannibalism.

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It's not immediate.

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It's not like tomorrow we'll, it's not like tomorrow we all start painting

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ourselves in our neighbor's blood, but you know, whatever.

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Somebody is wanting out there, hopefully not in our audience, that's listening,

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like I can't wait.

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I can't wait.

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I hope it comes tomorrow.

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You know, like I really want to eat Susan.

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Right.

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Uh, but that's almost entirely wrong about how civilizational collapse has happened.

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The academic study of collapse is a little more boring, unfortunately.

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But of course it is.

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This is the overlap.

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Right.

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But perhaps more useful.

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One, the man who sort of wrote the book, as they say on, um, on civilizational

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collapse is an anthropologist named Joseph Tainter.

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No, I wish it was, I wish it was, but that's, uh, that's unfortunate.

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A real guide and our intellectual guide for this journey.

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Yeah.

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His 1988 book, "The Collapse of Complex Societies" is sort of the, the cornerstone

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text for which the later academics built on.

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And his definition of collapse is famously uncinematic, right?

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It's not going to be something you hear in a world.

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In a world.

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He writes that a society has collapsed when it displays a rapid, significant loss.

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Of an established level of level of sociopolitical complexity.

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I mean.

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It doesn't fit in a movie trailer.

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Yeah.

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A rapid loss of sociopolitical complexity.

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You mean the end of the middle manager?

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Oh, one of the things.

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Making, making problems seem, seem simple when they're really much more complex.

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Right.

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But also removing the complexity that adds to the, or the bloat that

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adds to the complexity.

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So it gets complicated.

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It's the sort of a chicken and the egg.

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It was a Michigan versus chicken or the egg and the answer is yes.

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Um, but, but basically what this rapid loss is, is a rapid simplification.

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And Taylor's big theory is why this happens.

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For decades, everyone had a different pet theory.

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Right?

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There's resource depletion.

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Right?

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Everybody just used up the tragedy of the commons or whatever they used the

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bullet they had and then when it all ran out, they just fell apart.

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Climate change, right?

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Climate change.

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That's, that's a nice one to point to when civilizations get wiped off the map.

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Invaders, the classic, right?

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Uh, that's us by the way.

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Genghis Khan came in and destroyed our society.

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Yeah.

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Or, or the Europeans came in and wiped out the native Americans

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with indigenous people in America.

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We don't talk about that.

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Right.

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And sorry, sorry, I forgot what podcast was on here.

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I mean, I mean.

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Awkward, awkward, awkward.

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Yes.

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Then we have class conflict, elite mismanagement, right?

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Um, these are the like, unfortunately genetically limited offspring

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of repeated dynasties.

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Yeah.

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We'll go into that.

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You know, inbreeding, it was, it was inbreeding.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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Uh, so Taylor reviewed all of them and found them all lacking.

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Basically said, look, none of those things explain what he's,

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what he's finding in the history.

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Yeah.

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I mean, so ultimately he wasn't a big fan of like these mystical theories that had

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this like simplistic single answer and it brought down the entire, you know, like, because

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we had food stamps, it brought down the entire empire.

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Unfortunately, people like, like Oswald Spengler or also Arnold Toynbee.

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I don't even like the name, but you know, Toyn, sorry, T O Y N B E E Arnold

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Toynbee, who we will put, um, list their contributions to this podcast in our show notes.

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Right.

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So, so Spengler and Toynbee saw civilizations as living organisms.

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I hate they thought that they're born, they grow, they get older and they die.

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And if you see that as like the typical path, right.

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Then it's not so surprising or upsetting when a civilization passes on.

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It's just that it's lived out its lifespan, right?

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It's contributed all it can.

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It's grown to the extent that it can, and then it gets old and it dies.

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And the way they describe it is, is losing their creativity or their, it'll all be tall.

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We're embracing, we're embracing our Louisiana roots here.

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Right.

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So Taynors theory is far more brutal though.

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That's, that's the, the alternative theory.

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Taynors theory is that because it's not mystical in any way, he's saying

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it's an economic theory and there's one sentence explanation for why society's

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collapse is that the collapse, the collapse of a society is a response to declining

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marginal returns on investment and complexity.

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Yeah, that's not going to work for me.

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Maybe we could, maybe we could like work that out in English or something that

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our listeners are going to understand.

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All right.

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Let's, let's give it a shot.

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We'll give it our best try.

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All right.

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Human societies are at their core, problem solving organizations, right?

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The reason we collectivize, the reason we get together is because they're, we're

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trying to figure out some problem or solve some issue that we can't do on our own.

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Cause if we can do it on our own, we'd, we'd go do it on our own.

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It's a lot easier.

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Roads, bridges, pyramids.

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Like, I mean, exactly.

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There's a problem to solve.

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Infrastructure, defense, all sorts of things, right?

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Logistics.

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Um, so-

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Houston on defense.

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All right.

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Yeah.

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Or war, if you want to rename it.

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Okay, fine.

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So we invest in complexity to solve it, right?

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We, we take off, we take on sort of knowingly take on the things like when

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you, when you have a problem and you want to solve it, right?

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Like I said, you need to take your own solution and go after it.

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What if you're wrong, right?

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What if you're making a mistake or you're wasting time?

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You might want to consult some other people, but then once you bring in a

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committee, it's inevitably complex, right?

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There's going to be discussions that you would have had-

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Different opinions, different views, different ideas.

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Yeah.

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Exactly.

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What we call diversity, which, which I see as a strength, the show sees as a

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strength ultimately becomes a problem.

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Right.

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Because of the complexity of it, right?

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Like that's where it comes down to, is we start, we start solving the simple

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problems and then the more complex problems come in, you added the complexity

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of the people solving it and then it just becomes a cycle.

250
00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:05,140
Yeah.

251
00:12:05,140 --> 00:12:06,600
Should healthcare be a human right?

252
00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:08,740
You know, complex problem.

253
00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:13,120
And then more, more like how do we pay for this human right?

254
00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:14,320
Right.

255
00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,400
How do we make it all available and sure make it help people.

256
00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:24,960
So, um, the, uh, the core of the problem is that complexity has a cost, right?

257
00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:30,040
It offers massive advantages in the sense of resources and other people, but it

258
00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:34,800
also has a huge cost and it requires energy and resources to maintain, right?

259
00:12:34,820 --> 00:12:37,640
That's, that's part of it, like, even though it doesn't see it as a living organism,

260
00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:39,600
it's still something that consumes our resources.

261
00:12:40,500 --> 00:12:42,600
And eventually you hit the point of diminishing returns.

262
00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:47,320
The more, the more complexity you throw at a problem, you're just, it's just not working.

263
00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:47,620
Right.

264
00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:51,320
Um, you've already solved the low hanging fruit and now you have to spend

265
00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:54,220
the exponentially more to just get a tiny marginal benefit, right?

266
00:12:54,220 --> 00:13:00,020
So it's like 90% of the way to like, to universal healthcare, maybe one level,

267
00:13:00,020 --> 00:13:03,040
but they may take a thousand times as much to get that final 10%.

268
00:13:03,860 --> 00:13:05,200
And that's where we're into the problems.

269
00:13:05,460 --> 00:13:10,320
So, Taylor cites four key areas in which we see this happen.

270
00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:12,860
These are the products of society or civilization.

271
00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:17,820
Agricultural production, which gives you more labor for less return per worker.

272
00:13:18,900 --> 00:13:22,880
Knowledge production, you have to spend exponentially more to sustain existing

273
00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:23,600
growth levels, right?

274
00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:26,300
And that's where you start to see people have to specialize in like really tiny

275
00:13:26,300 --> 00:13:30,520
niche areas of science in order to advance our understanding.

276
00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:32,280
Those are valuable.

277
00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:33,840
I want to say, I just want to point out.

278
00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:37,160
Those, those specific scenarios are very valuable.

279
00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:45,360
Like we, we particularly, especially love those, like really unique weirdos who have

280
00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:49,240
like, I don't know, they hone in on one very specific thing.

281
00:13:49,740 --> 00:13:54,640
They're like, I really love birds in Southwestern Oklahoma, and I'm going to

282
00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:59,700
devote my life to recording them and putting them out there into the world.

283
00:13:59,960 --> 00:14:00,060
Yeah.

284
00:14:00,100 --> 00:14:03,880
I think it is more like, you know, when you get into like the subatomic level, right?

285
00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:07,700
And again, still value for these things, but like, when you talk about, okay, we

286
00:14:07,700 --> 00:14:11,800
study atoms and we study the reactions and atomic, atomic particles, right.

287
00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:16,900
At that level, you can do that in a basic lab, like maybe a high end lab, a lab

288
00:14:16,900 --> 00:14:20,980
that's, you know, not, it's reasonably priced or any single university or something

289
00:14:20,980 --> 00:14:22,880
like that, but then you want to start.

290
00:14:23,540 --> 00:14:29,440
That lab gets cheaper and cheaper and cheaper because industrialization.

291
00:14:29,940 --> 00:14:30,280
Right.

292
00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:33,380
But on the other hand, you get the large hadron collider, right?

293
00:14:33,380 --> 00:14:36,040
If you want to study what happens at the moment of the big bang or something like

294
00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,180
that, that's going to be a lot more expensive as we've seen.

295
00:14:39,500 --> 00:14:40,300
That's a big donut.

296
00:14:40,300 --> 00:14:41,900
It's a big donut.

297
00:14:42,020 --> 00:14:42,580
That's right.

298
00:14:43,580 --> 00:14:44,580
So much icing.

299
00:14:45,060 --> 00:14:47,740
Hard to swallow for a lot of a country's budgets.

300
00:14:47,820 --> 00:14:48,380
You know.

301
00:14:48,940 --> 00:14:52,380
But, yeah, so that's, that's the trade off for knowledge production is once

302
00:14:52,380 --> 00:14:56,620
you solve all the easy problems, solving the harder problems becomes that much

303
00:14:56,620 --> 00:14:58,100
more difficult to much more expensive.

304
00:14:58,700 --> 00:15:01,940
Still, still again, we're not talking about valuation, not whether this is worth it

305
00:15:01,940 --> 00:15:03,620
or not, just this is what happens.

306
00:15:03,860 --> 00:15:05,500
Next step you have bureaucratic power.

307
00:15:05,980 --> 00:15:09,280
You get administrative bloat and anybody who's worked in a university or been

308
00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:10,940
around universities has seen this.

309
00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,020
You have more costly administrators and less frontline work.

310
00:15:14,820 --> 00:15:18,860
You don't have money to pay professors, tenured professors, so you hire adjuncts

311
00:15:18,860 --> 00:15:20,180
and you pay them next to nothing.

312
00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,700
Meanwhile, you have to, somebody managed all these adjuncts, so you have to hire

313
00:15:23,740 --> 00:15:25,620
administrators, you get paid more than all of them combined.

314
00:15:25,620 --> 00:15:30,020
I would argue in, not just in the academic world, like almost every business world,

315
00:15:30,060 --> 00:15:34,860
once you have these really high paid managers who are implementing, you know,

316
00:15:34,900 --> 00:15:39,740
agile and safe and all this other stuff, you've got, you don't have a whole lot of

317
00:15:39,740 --> 00:15:42,580
budget leftover to actually hire the people who do the work.

318
00:15:43,420 --> 00:15:43,740
Right.

319
00:15:44,020 --> 00:15:45,980
So that just feeds itself like everything else.

320
00:15:45,980 --> 00:15:50,220
And then economic productivity, which is the whole system just gets sluggish, right?

321
00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:52,020
Money doesn't move efficiently.

322
00:15:52,020 --> 00:15:57,380
People sit on their, their horns of wealth and, um, it just, the whole system bogs

323
00:15:57,380 --> 00:16:00,540
down and that's where you get that complexity that ends up killing your civilization.

324
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:02,820
Yeah, this sounds familiar.

325
00:16:03,580 --> 00:16:10,440
I mean, the sense that like modern society and the world we live in is a mess, right?

326
00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:18,600
Like a world that's so complicated that no, no ordinary man, no ordinary man can

327
00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,520
fully conceive everything that's actually happening.

328
00:16:22,500 --> 00:16:22,760
Right?

329
00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:29,100
So it's basically beyond any single human's control except for either exceptional humans.

330
00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:33,480
Very best high IQ you ever seen human beings.

331
00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:34,720
Big, beautiful human.

332
00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:36,400
Big, beautiful humans.

333
00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:38,440
Yeah.

334
00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:40,500
But you know, let's get back to Tainter.

335
00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,200
Yeah, this is, so this is where his theory connects with our own modern political

336
00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:49,040
crisis, which is this ever-increasing complexity and the diminishing returns

337
00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:53,500
that it now creates is what fuels the popular resentment that populists exploit, right?

338
00:16:53,500 --> 00:16:56,380
Because what you see is back in the early days when we were solving the

339
00:16:56,380 --> 00:16:59,380
low-hanging fruit problems, everybody was benefiting, right?

340
00:16:59,380 --> 00:17:01,200
Everything was just rolling, you know, we were getting more and more.

341
00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:02,260
Yeah, like water.

342
00:17:02,620 --> 00:17:06,340
We're taking care of water filtration, like sewer, you know, taking

343
00:17:06,340 --> 00:17:08,380
care of the basic needs of human beings.

344
00:17:09,140 --> 00:17:11,660
But also like, you know, the new advances were big, right?

345
00:17:11,660 --> 00:17:15,100
So I mean, you know, streaming, streaming content on online or like

346
00:17:15,100 --> 00:17:16,780
the internet or things like that.

347
00:17:16,780 --> 00:17:17,660
The iPhone.

348
00:17:18,140 --> 00:17:18,800
The iPhone.

349
00:17:18,980 --> 00:17:19,500
Yeah.

350
00:17:19,740 --> 00:17:20,940
That reinvigorated the phone.

351
00:17:21,900 --> 00:17:23,440
All being made possible through all this.

352
00:17:24,120 --> 00:17:26,780
But then once you start getting the admission returns, once you're at iPhone

353
00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:33,480
75 and it's like indiscernible from iPhone 71, people start to get ticked off.

354
00:17:34,340 --> 00:17:38,540
And that's basically what we're seeing now is like, you know, government 3.0 is

355
00:17:38,540 --> 00:17:40,200
no better than government 2.5.

356
00:17:41,540 --> 00:17:41,840
Yeah.

357
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:43,280
I mean, yeah.

358
00:17:43,900 --> 00:17:44,180
Yeah.

359
00:17:44,180 --> 00:17:48,860
So iPhone 74, trademark, by the way, we do have to point that out.

360
00:17:49,420 --> 00:17:51,860
They've already trademarked it, but that's not true.

361
00:17:52,020 --> 00:17:52,760
I mean, I don't know.

362
00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:53,780
It might be, who knows.

363
00:17:53,820 --> 00:17:58,500
iOS 74 is probably much higher up on their, their rings, but wrongs.

364
00:17:58,500 --> 00:18:02,860
But basically people feel like these, these like incredibly complicated,

365
00:18:02,940 --> 00:18:05,980
overwhelmingly, amazing.

366
00:18:06,020 --> 00:18:06,860
What's another word?

367
00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:07,960
Labyrinth, right?

368
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:08,680
Like a labyrinth.

369
00:18:09,740 --> 00:18:10,640
Labyrinthine.

370
00:18:10,700 --> 00:18:11,660
Labyrinthine.

371
00:18:11,740 --> 00:18:12,120
Thine?

372
00:18:12,120 --> 00:18:12,740
Is it thine?

373
00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:13,940
I think it's thine.

374
00:18:14,360 --> 00:18:15,080
Labyrinthine.

375
00:18:15,100 --> 00:18:15,340
Okay.

376
00:18:15,340 --> 00:18:16,420
So labyrinthine.

377
00:18:16,820 --> 00:18:17,360
Gross.

378
00:18:17,380 --> 00:18:22,640
I don't, I don't ever want to use that word again, but the ideas of trade, being

379
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:29,660
basically a labyrinth of policies and ideas and thoughts, technology, population

380
00:18:29,660 --> 00:18:35,580
movement, and also the, the agreements that we, we come to with other countries.

381
00:18:36,340 --> 00:18:40,700
We have, you know, I mean, and look, it's a lot we have, we have North

382
00:18:40,700 --> 00:18:42,820
American Trade Organization, NATO.

383
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,920
We've got the UN, we've got the AMBLA.

384
00:18:47,220 --> 00:18:48,340
No, that's Manbla.

385
00:18:48,420 --> 00:18:49,420
That's men loving.

386
00:18:49,460 --> 00:18:50,220
No, no.

387
00:18:50,540 --> 00:18:51,840
Men loving a different thing.

388
00:18:52,060 --> 00:18:55,700
Anyway, point I'm trying to say is we have all these organizations, we

389
00:18:55,700 --> 00:18:58,700
have these different treaties, we have these different trades, these different

390
00:18:58,700 --> 00:19:02,140
ideas, right, like, ultimately we're responsible for them.

391
00:19:02,140 --> 00:19:03,560
We sign them, we agree to them.

392
00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:09,820
And every organization within, I say every organization, no, every, every

393
00:19:09,900 --> 00:19:15,660
part of our government has a responsibility ultimately to adhere to

394
00:19:15,700 --> 00:19:18,060
these international agreements.

395
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:23,100
They, they basically, they don't provide recognizable benefits to the average

396
00:19:23,100 --> 00:19:24,820
human being, and we're seeing it now, right?

397
00:19:24,820 --> 00:19:31,580
I mean, this isn't, this isn't a labyrinthine, hmm, to use a very, very

398
00:19:31,580 --> 00:19:38,880
PhD kind of word, um, this, this, this labyrinthine idea, we, we get it now,

399
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:44,660
like we're living it, because we're responsible to so many things that you

400
00:19:44,660 --> 00:19:51,320
need, and an example I think of this is, is like, like law, dealing with, with

401
00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:54,300
simple ideas of labor law and paychecks.

402
00:19:54,300 --> 00:19:57,900
And, and you have to pay me within a certain amount of time and these sorts

403
00:19:57,900 --> 00:20:03,500
of things, like that reality is so incredibly complex that we've put a

404
00:20:03,500 --> 00:20:09,560
whole computer system that can answer those questions into our, our realm for

405
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:14,340
the purpose of answering these complex questions, but back out just a second.

406
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:15,660
I went a little bit deep there.

407
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:22,100
The whole point is when it's so incredibly complicated that you need

408
00:20:22,120 --> 00:20:28,720
additional parties to help you parse the information, it kind of becomes an

409
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,300
ethereal blend of fog.

410
00:20:32,100 --> 00:20:38,380
It's completely unrecognizable in the terms of what we agreed to.

411
00:20:38,380 --> 00:20:44,220
So benefits to us that we don't even recognize anymore.

412
00:20:44,500 --> 00:20:45,360
Will, do you agree?

413
00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:49,620
Yeah, I don't feel like the benefits we used to expect when it's things like, and

414
00:20:49,620 --> 00:20:52,360
just get so complicated, it's exhausting to even think about, like when I think

415
00:20:52,360 --> 00:20:56,040
about taxes, like you said, the tax code or things like that, it's just exhausting.

416
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:57,680
I think we want to begin on the tax code.

417
00:20:57,820 --> 00:21:02,260
But, you know, that's what allows an insurgent politician, so to speak, to come

418
00:21:02,260 --> 00:21:03,860
in and offer simple answers, right?

419
00:21:04,500 --> 00:21:09,300
Slogans like take back control or make America great again, direct response to

420
00:21:09,300 --> 00:21:12,180
the feeling that complexity is becoming an unmanageable burden.

421
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:17,140
People, people obviously, I mean, they choose the simplicity and locality over

422
00:21:17,140 --> 00:21:21,840
their complexity and they choose their own individual identity over internationalism.

423
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:23,640
Yeah, a hundred percent.

424
00:21:23,740 --> 00:21:27,180
I mean, ultimately at the, at the personal level, right?

425
00:21:27,180 --> 00:21:28,780
This has become exactly this.

426
00:21:29,100 --> 00:21:35,040
It's become this country and this gubernatorial isolationism from our perspective.

427
00:21:35,060 --> 00:21:39,480
I mean, I'm speaking only for the United States and what I'm seeing in the world,

428
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,520
in mainstream media, it's internalized, right?

429
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:46,260
There's this idea that it's easy.

430
00:21:46,260 --> 00:21:47,360
It's an easy fix.

431
00:21:47,380 --> 00:21:54,660
All we have to do is eliminate migrants, eliminate minorities, eliminate women,

432
00:21:54,700 --> 00:22:00,440
eliminate diversity, equity, inclusion, take out just, just not with a scalpel,

433
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:09,820
but with a chainsaw, let's remove every portion of our lives that bring about

434
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:11,780
equality, which is what we set out to be.

435
00:22:12,500 --> 00:22:13,620
We set out to be equal.

436
00:22:13,620 --> 00:22:16,840
We set out to be putting everybody on the same playing field.

437
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:22,740
We tried to create equity at a base level, but they became so complex

438
00:22:22,740 --> 00:22:28,380
that just like Tainter's theory, which really, I mean, his theory is not just

439
00:22:28,380 --> 00:22:32,620
about a society or a civilization in decline, it's about, it's about being

440
00:22:32,620 --> 00:22:39,340
exhausted because that's what Donald Trump sold to the public was this idea of,

441
00:22:39,340 --> 00:22:42,720
well, we're just tired of doing all of this stuff.

442
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:50,440
Tainter agrees and it supports Tainter's idea that says that society is so bloated

443
00:22:50,940 --> 00:22:56,800
and bureaucratic, that it can no longer actually afford to actually write the check

444
00:22:57,020 --> 00:23:01,140
to be what it is to uphold those rules and laws.

445
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:09,420
This is really where Tainter's theory hits its most scathing point, which is he

446
00:23:09,420 --> 00:23:13,340
removes morality and collapse is not a tragedy, it's an economic correction, right?

447
00:23:13,340 --> 00:23:15,940
So again, these sort of dry objective bases.

448
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,980
When the cost of maintaining the complex state becomes a greater burden than the

449
00:23:19,980 --> 00:23:26,080
benefits it provides, collapse isn't just a disaster, it becomes a rational choice

450
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:27,840
for the average person to simply walk away.

451
00:23:28,940 --> 00:23:32,760
They abandon their cities, they stop paying taxes and revert to a simpler local life.

452
00:23:33,260 --> 00:23:35,300
Hey, libertarianism!

453
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:37,260
Welcome back.

454
00:23:37,500 --> 00:23:37,940
Right.

455
00:23:37,980 --> 00:23:43,020
Like, literally anybody like me who's gone from what I would call mainstream

456
00:23:43,020 --> 00:23:47,800
right wing to somewhere in between, like a libertarian viewpoint.

457
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:52,240
Now I did embrace libertarian ideals for like a Fortnite.

458
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:57,220
So, you know, I'm giving myself a little bit away here, but so when I, when I upheld

459
00:23:57,220 --> 00:24:02,460
these ideals, I said, like I said, a Fortnite, the logic didn't last for very long.

460
00:24:02,700 --> 00:24:07,860
I mean, ultimately it was like, well, we have to all stop paying taxes and we need

461
00:24:07,860 --> 00:24:11,160
to revert to this simple, do it yourself philosophy.

462
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:17,700
Everybody lives on their own five acres of farmland and we negotiate every time

463
00:24:17,700 --> 00:24:20,480
we want to go anywhere further than our own home.

464
00:24:21,020 --> 00:24:28,780
It got so incredibly simple by being incredibly complex, but the state as

465
00:24:28,780 --> 00:24:30,780
it exists doesn't get conquered, right?

466
00:24:30,780 --> 00:24:32,220
It gets, it gets divorced.

467
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:34,940
It gets like, oh, so long, girl.

468
00:24:35,380 --> 00:24:36,040
Bye girl.

469
00:24:36,980 --> 00:24:37,740
No, thanks, girl.

470
00:24:38,700 --> 00:24:39,600
Don't call me anymore.

471
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:45,480
Block that number because it's no longer worth the amount of money that we're putting in.

472
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,280
And look, a lot of us are feeling that right now.

473
00:24:47,360 --> 00:24:49,380
Well, you're certainly feeling that right now.

474
00:24:50,120 --> 00:24:50,840
Absolutely.

475
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:55,780
We're putting in so much of our tax dollars and look, I specifically still very much

476
00:24:55,780 --> 00:25:01,540
identify with the libertarian ideals of this because when you look at what the like

477
00:25:01,580 --> 00:25:08,960
Northern Finland and Scandinavian countries pay in taxes, it's like 2% more than we're

478
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,260
currently paying, like 2.7%.

479
00:25:12,660 --> 00:25:13,360
I compared it.

480
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:14,240
I did the math.

481
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:15,880
I looked at the numbers.

482
00:25:16,100 --> 00:25:25,080
We pay about 2.7% less and they have universal health care and they have guaranteed vacation.

483
00:25:25,300 --> 00:25:30,740
They have up to 36 months of parental leave for new parents.

484
00:25:31,360 --> 00:25:32,100
Paid.

485
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,680
Like, what are we doing?

486
00:25:34,900 --> 00:25:36,500
That feels gross.

487
00:25:37,360 --> 00:25:37,620
Yeah.

488
00:25:38,360 --> 00:25:42,800
And when you get to the point, like, like we all, I think, I think collectively we're

489
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:48,200
becoming to the point of it's not worth how much we pay in taxes and how much we do.

490
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:49,680
It's not worth the investment.

491
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:50,540
No, thanks.

492
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:55,400
And so at that point, it's a rational thing to just walk away, opt out.

493
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:56,000
Exactly.

494
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,800
So now, now we're going to turn to some examples of this throughout history.

495
00:26:01,360 --> 00:26:04,500
I will have the familiar ones that you may have heard of you listen to this before.

496
00:26:04,500 --> 00:26:07,400
So feel free to skip forward or whatever is new for you.

497
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:07,720
But.

498
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:12,000
We're going to start with the gold standard for this sort of economic collapse or

499
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:16,400
civilizational collapse, which is drum roll, wait for it.

500
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:18,300
The Roman empire.

501
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:25,520
Yeah, Rome the OG, the hardcore first, first to die OG collapse.

502
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:31,960
The one that literally launched a thousand decline and fall of books.

503
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,240
And those are just the ones written by Edward Gibbons, but.

504
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:35,920
Thanks Edward.

505
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:37,680
We appreciate you on this podcast.

506
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:39,080
Feel free to sponsor it.

507
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:40,180
Right.

508
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,400
So, but specifically here, we have to remember that we're talking about

509
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:44,840
the Western Roman empire, right?

510
00:26:45,300 --> 00:26:49,040
So what we think of as the Roman empire is the part that one ruled by, you know,

511
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,400
I guess, well, up until Constantine, it was the whole thing, but then.

512
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,680
I was gonna say it like, like Rome, Italy.

513
00:26:56,700 --> 00:26:58,240
Yeah, Rome, exactly.

514
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:03,160
The Roman empire, the Eastern empire, which was Constantinople and.

515
00:27:03,660 --> 00:27:04,720
Istanbul and all that.

516
00:27:05,100 --> 00:27:05,440
Yes.

517
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,280
That's the, that's the, that's actually, I'm sorry, I hate to interrupt you.

518
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,200
It's Istanbul, not Constantine Opal.

519
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:13,200
Is that what it is?

520
00:27:13,360 --> 00:27:16,240
I thought it was Istanbul now, Constantinople.

521
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:17,300
That's yeah.

522
00:27:17,300 --> 00:27:17,760
Nope.

523
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:18,160
It's not.

524
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:22,000
Unfortunately, it's Istanbul, not Constantinople.

525
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:23,240
Got it.

526
00:27:23,360 --> 00:27:23,720
All right.

527
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:24,280
Yeah.

528
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,680
Well, so when we're comparing this to the U S we're comparing.

529
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:35,600
Trump, Donald Trump, president Trump to like Caesar or Caesar or someone like that.

530
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:37,000
Those are the ones we're looking at.

531
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:41,680
So yeah, I mean, that's kind of what he'd like to be compared to.

532
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:44,360
I think, I mean, Trump is no Caesar.

533
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,980
Like he, that's literally what he dreams about.

534
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:53,000
And I think he puts it on truth social that about his dreams.

535
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:55,580
Imperial designs.

536
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:56,720
Exactly.

537
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:56,840
Yeah.

538
00:27:56,840 --> 00:28:00,220
So the alternative parallel that has greater resonance here is not

539
00:28:00,220 --> 00:28:01,420
the story of the emperors.

540
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,860
So we're not focusing on the emperors that we're focusing on the processes through

541
00:28:04,860 --> 00:28:07,360
which the empire emperors came to power in the first place.

542
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:08,120
Right.

543
00:28:08,220 --> 00:28:11,360
For those who value America's democracy, the fall of Rome's Republican

544
00:28:11,360 --> 00:28:14,920
experiment provides the clearest parallels and the most severe warnings.

545
00:28:15,300 --> 00:28:15,600
Yeah.

546
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:16,160
So we're not.

547
00:28:17,360 --> 00:28:17,800
Go ahead.

548
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:18,780
No.

549
00:28:20,060 --> 00:28:20,440
Okay.

550
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,980
We're not in the empire phase, right?

551
00:28:23,980 --> 00:28:29,320
Like we're living through the collapse of the Republic, meaning this is like, this

552
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:33,600
is like 30 years after they have breads, they have circuses.

553
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:35,660
And they're living out both.

554
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:37,380
This is the collapse.

555
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:42,400
They're trying to convince people that their far reach is normal.

556
00:28:43,100 --> 00:28:46,900
Their soldiers dying is part of the, you know, it's part of a

557
00:28:46,900 --> 00:28:49,700
landscape of building an empire.

558
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:55,440
It's, you know, collapsing Greenland, the United States, it's annexing Canada.

559
00:28:56,300 --> 00:29:00,540
It's, you know, these bags must be broken for them.

560
00:29:00,900 --> 00:29:01,480
Exactly.

561
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:03,400
It's the collapse of the Republic.

562
00:29:03,500 --> 00:29:05,260
And there's some eggshells here and there.

563
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:06,440
Right.

564
00:29:07,100 --> 00:29:08,540
So let's look at some of the parallels.

565
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:14,260
After Rome became the undisputed power of its world, the first and only super at

566
00:29:14,260 --> 00:29:18,680
the time, the only superpower in the Western world anyway, immense wealth became

567
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:20,440
concentrated in fewer and fewer hands.

568
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:21,640
Imagine that later.

569
00:29:22,100 --> 00:29:24,640
This led to the age of the great men and dictators.

570
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,860
These were popular generals who bound their allegiance to them with

571
00:29:27,860 --> 00:29:29,100
oaths of personal fealty.

572
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,060
Again, never heard of that.

573
00:29:31,260 --> 00:29:33,240
Anyway, continuing on.

574
00:29:34,020 --> 00:29:35,380
What was that?

575
00:29:36,020 --> 00:29:41,480
They were defined by populist mobilizations based on immense wealth, the capacity to

576
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:47,120
purchase public affection, and the ability to defy one's cherish and conventions with

577
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:47,640
impunity.

578
00:29:48,260 --> 00:29:53,060
Yeah, I mean, you know, that sounds, uh, sounds par for the course.

579
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:57,120
That sounds, uh, as I would call it, Mar-a-Lago.

580
00:29:59,220 --> 00:30:03,600
I mean, I can't help but feel like this is literally the exact moment we're

581
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:04,380
living in right now.

582
00:30:04,380 --> 00:30:13,080
I mean, uh, this podcast is not shy away from overlaps, you know, AKA our branding,

583
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:18,140
but ultimately this is exactly what we're talking about.

584
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:23,400
This is the moment where that we're currently living in the United States is

585
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:31,160
currently looking directly on Fox news, on CNN, on MSNBC, and all of the other, the

586
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:38,260
other private networks looking at a completely unprecedented, and I will say

587
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:42,600
unprecedented tyranny and its history.

588
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:43,380
Right.

589
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:50,080
The replacement of the rule of the people, which is exactly what a democracy

590
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:55,560
stands for with the domination of one person.

591
00:30:55,700 --> 00:31:00,360
Um, I'm just going to put a little star here and all of his wealthiest and most

592
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:07,940
beneficial friends like Elon Musk, like Jeff Bezos, like Metta, like all of the

593
00:31:07,940 --> 00:31:15,280
little millionaire billionaire fanboys that donated billions of dollars to

594
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:19,320
Donald Trump's presidential library.

595
00:31:19,380 --> 00:31:19,760
Yeah.

596
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:26,620
So we're left with the leader who defies, openly defies the constitution by talking

597
00:31:26,620 --> 00:31:28,020
about third term as president.

598
00:31:28,500 --> 00:31:31,980
I mean, again, it's in plain written English in the constitution.

599
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:33,560
I will say, I will say.

600
00:31:34,820 --> 00:31:40,320
He did recently, very recently, and that makes this episode, not as evergreen,

601
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,720
but he recently said, it seems pretty clear.

602
00:31:43,860 --> 00:31:45,180
I'm not going to have a third term.

603
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:51,900
And he gave a speech after some really fantastic election wins this past season,

604
00:31:52,220 --> 00:32:00,500
a season of November that specifically kind of highlighted exactly that he felt

605
00:32:00,500 --> 00:32:06,300
it would be conducive for him not to have a third term, which means he's coming

606
00:32:06,300 --> 00:32:12,140
around at least to the idea that he doesn't get to be a king despite other

607
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,000
facts that we'll talk about later.

608
00:32:14,940 --> 00:32:20,220
Unless this is all just more distraction and this whole thing's a red herring.

609
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:27,140
But we have this Trumpist movement that undermines the institutions, conventions,

610
00:32:27,140 --> 00:32:29,820
and culture that have governed democratic lives in the American Republic.

611
00:32:29,860 --> 00:32:30,260
Yeah.

612
00:32:30,300 --> 00:32:37,800
So ultimately, Caesar, quote, "did not destroy the Republic," as one of the

613
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,380
historians that we researched wrote about.

614
00:32:40,380 --> 00:32:47,060
But basically the Republican order was already spent, like its entire conventions,

615
00:32:47,100 --> 00:32:54,220
every precedent that it had ever held true to be sacrosanct, they shredded it.

616
00:32:54,220 --> 00:32:57,660
They just literally put it through a shredder, like the one my grandma was like,

617
00:32:57,660 --> 00:33:01,900
"Hey, there's scammers out there that are trying to get your information."

618
00:33:01,900 --> 00:33:03,860
I'm like, "Yeah, everything's online now."

619
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:04,420
Yeah.

620
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,540
They were, they shredded it.

621
00:33:07,540 --> 00:33:09,100
They were just like, "Yeah, it's all gone.

622
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:09,580
Sorry."

623
00:33:09,860 --> 00:33:16,320
All of the information that you thought was true, all the precedent that we've ever had,

624
00:33:16,380 --> 00:33:17,620
yeah, we're not going to do that anymore.

625
00:33:17,860 --> 00:33:21,980
Basically, every institution was undermined.

626
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,900
They were like, "Yeah, you know, that doesn't really fit our narrative."

627
00:33:26,060 --> 00:33:32,860
He was just the near-perfect expression of that new broken political culture.

628
00:33:32,940 --> 00:33:36,580
And this institutional delay we're talking about was happening long before the final fall.

629
00:33:36,660 --> 00:33:41,240
I mean, look at the elite failure of the Emperor Honorius in the fifth century.

630
00:33:41,300 --> 00:33:45,820
And this is a man ranked by many historians as the worst of the worst Roman emperors.

631
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,540
Not for his tyranny, but for his mind-numbing incompetence.

632
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:54,180
He was basically a personal power vacuum at the exact moment the empire needed a leader.

633
00:33:54,820 --> 00:34:03,000
So what we see here is that when you're facing these moments of crisis, you needed a strong leader to step up, and they did not have one at that time.

634
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:08,060
These sorts of things allow for people like Caesar to come in and take over, and that's basically what he did.

635
00:34:08,060 --> 00:34:15,580
He took advantage of the fact that the Senate couldn't oppose him, and the fact that people weren't really all that interested in maintaining the status quo.

636
00:34:15,580 --> 00:34:25,360
If everybody's happy and well-fed and everybody's enjoying life, they might be more willing to step up and defend their existing power structure or existing civilization.

637
00:34:26,100 --> 00:34:32,540
But once that starts to fail them and it no longer serves its purpose, what is their motivation for fighting for it?

638
00:34:32,580 --> 00:34:38,260
Now, Emperor Honorius actually did have one competent general, Stelico, executed.

639
00:34:38,780 --> 00:34:45,340
So, I mean, he not only was terrible as a leader, but he actually executed one of the best leaders he had underneath him.

640
00:34:45,380 --> 00:34:56,220
And then when the Gothic leader at the time, Alaric, offered a pretty decent deal for peace, Honorius told him to pound sand basically, which led directly to the avoidable sack of Rome.

641
00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:04,300
So the Goths at this point are willing to make a deal, and instead he's like, "No, I'm not making any deals with you all. See you later."

642
00:35:05,060 --> 00:35:11,620
And this is the kind of elite failure that we all recognize, but his real failure wasn't just incompetence in leading the empire.

643
00:35:11,620 --> 00:35:14,860
It was actually, as Tanner would predict, economic policy.

644
00:35:15,660 --> 00:35:21,900
And I remember that I studied Roman history or the history of the Roman Empire, in college a long time ago.

645
00:35:21,900 --> 00:35:28,860
But what I remember from one thing that stuck out with me is, every other, or every third emperor, Rome would be bankrupt.

646
00:35:29,100 --> 00:35:36,340
Like they would just spend everything and empty out all the coffers, and then somebody would either execute that person or they'd run away in shame.

647
00:35:37,020 --> 00:35:41,480
And then it would be left to the next person to rebuild the coffers with taxes and all sorts of other things.

648
00:35:41,500 --> 00:35:44,340
Because, surprise, surprise, running an empire is expensive.

649
00:35:45,180 --> 00:35:51,820
By the time we get to Nero in 64 AD, the state needed more money, but they couldn't just raise taxes because that would cause a revolt.

650
00:35:52,300 --> 00:35:57,340
So Nero and the political elite discovered a means to increase the spending without raising taxes.

651
00:35:58,180 --> 00:36:03,020
This sounds like a fountain of youth or alchemy, you're unable to turn lead into gold.

652
00:36:03,940 --> 00:36:04,860
Well, how'd they do it?

653
00:36:06,220 --> 00:36:11,820
Their magical plan, and this again will sound very familiar, was the policy of inflation.

654
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:12,840
Wait, what?

655
00:36:13,220 --> 00:36:14,060
Inflation?

656
00:36:14,060 --> 00:36:17,620
That's...but that...we're at an all-time high here in the United States.

657
00:36:17,620 --> 00:36:18,740
That would never happen.

658
00:36:19,100 --> 00:36:21,060
Gas is the lowest price it's ever been.

659
00:36:21,540 --> 00:36:25,900
Eggs are the lowest price they've also ever been in the history of humanity.

660
00:36:25,980 --> 00:36:28,500
Never have eggs and gasoline been lower.

661
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:30,420
How can we even have inflation?

662
00:36:30,460 --> 00:36:31,860
That's fake news.

663
00:36:32,660 --> 00:36:33,340
Fake news, right?

664
00:36:33,860 --> 00:36:37,580
Ignore the price levels at your local grocery store.

665
00:36:39,060 --> 00:36:41,740
Look not at the surrounds of you.

666
00:36:43,260 --> 00:36:45,140
Don't look behind the curtain.

667
00:36:45,700 --> 00:36:47,300
Just trust us, it's never been lower.

668
00:36:47,660 --> 00:36:48,060
Yes.

669
00:36:48,980 --> 00:36:54,900
Yeah, so they, what they did was to cause inflation, they debased the standards over a coin,

670
00:36:55,140 --> 00:36:58,100
the denarius, by infusing it with cheap metals such as copper.

671
00:36:58,780 --> 00:37:01,860
They also clipped coins, which is like shaving the edges of the coins to

672
00:37:01,860 --> 00:37:02,980
meant new smaller ones.

673
00:37:04,260 --> 00:37:09,860
So they literally invented quantitative easing, or as I like to call it,

674
00:37:09,860 --> 00:37:11,740
right sizing or shrink flation.

675
00:37:12,660 --> 00:37:12,980
Right.

676
00:37:13,460 --> 00:37:15,300
And it worked for a little bit of time.

677
00:37:15,300 --> 00:37:15,580
Yeah.

678
00:37:16,100 --> 00:37:22,180
But the solution had declining returns by 200 AD, the denarius was only 50% silver,

679
00:37:22,300 --> 00:37:24,500
which led to a massive rise in the cost of living.

680
00:37:24,660 --> 00:37:25,300
Imagine that.

681
00:37:26,380 --> 00:37:26,860
Exactly.

682
00:37:27,620 --> 00:37:29,940
And here's our loop, our feedback loop, right?

683
00:37:29,940 --> 00:37:34,620
The state is now paying its soldiers and worthless money can no longer afford its

684
00:37:34,620 --> 00:37:37,180
own problem solvers, the army.

685
00:37:37,900 --> 00:37:39,860
And what happens when the Roman state can't pay its army?

686
00:37:40,500 --> 00:37:42,540
Or the government shuts down and they can't pay their army?

687
00:37:42,660 --> 00:37:44,380
I mean, the army becomes the problem, right?

688
00:37:44,460 --> 00:37:45,700
That's, that's the thing.

689
00:37:45,740 --> 00:37:48,140
At the people that were supposed to be keeping order and keeping things in

690
00:37:48,140 --> 00:37:49,980
line, suddenly they're not getting paid.

691
00:37:50,500 --> 00:37:53,340
Like, well, we still got all of our weapons and all of our training.

692
00:37:53,380 --> 00:37:54,100
They don't.

693
00:37:54,180 --> 00:37:55,820
So let's see what we can do about this.

694
00:37:56,540 --> 00:38:01,780
And that, that's when you get situations where you have a collapse, like between

695
00:38:01,780 --> 00:38:07,220
two to two 35 and two 84 AD groups of military deserters, whom the Roman state

696
00:38:07,220 --> 00:38:11,340
was unable to pay, roam the countryside, pillaging small towns with farms.

697
00:38:12,660 --> 00:38:14,260
I mean, that makes sense.

698
00:38:14,260 --> 00:38:14,580
Right.

699
00:38:14,620 --> 00:38:21,820
I mean, like ultimately Roman soldiers pillaging their own towns.

700
00:38:21,900 --> 00:38:23,980
I mean, yeah, that's, that's where they were, right?

701
00:38:23,980 --> 00:38:26,380
That's where they could go to get the resources they need.

702
00:38:26,660 --> 00:38:27,620
You got to meet them where they are.

703
00:38:28,180 --> 00:38:28,540
Yeah.

704
00:38:29,300 --> 00:38:31,340
And I mean, again, because you, here's the thing.

705
00:38:31,780 --> 00:38:33,540
You go fight somebody else's cities, right?

706
00:38:33,540 --> 00:38:35,100
You go try and sack somebody else's cities.

707
00:38:35,100 --> 00:38:36,540
Their armies are going to fight you back.

708
00:38:37,060 --> 00:38:40,380
But if you're the army in your own country, who's going to fight you

709
00:38:40,380 --> 00:38:41,380
when you go after the towns?

710
00:38:42,380 --> 00:38:43,180
You're the army.

711
00:38:43,500 --> 00:38:46,180
It's like, like when the police come and do something like, you know, what

712
00:38:46,180 --> 00:38:47,180
are you going to call the police?

713
00:38:47,540 --> 00:38:48,420
We are the police.

714
00:38:48,580 --> 00:38:50,940
So that's, that's basically the result of what happens.

715
00:38:50,940 --> 00:38:53,300
The barbarian invasions were the cause of the collapse.

716
00:38:53,300 --> 00:38:56,100
They were the results of a system that had already eaten itself more than.

717
00:38:56,900 --> 00:38:58,820
Like so- Go ahead.

718
00:38:58,900 --> 00:38:59,140
Yep.

719
00:38:59,220 --> 00:39:01,540
As you say, by the time the barbarian showed up, there was just nothing

720
00:39:01,540 --> 00:39:03,540
left but the bones to pick.

721
00:39:03,620 --> 00:39:03,940
Yeah.

722
00:39:03,940 --> 00:39:08,780
And that ultimately is the system and Arius was leading, right?

723
00:39:09,180 --> 00:39:14,580
The man who, and look, I don't want to underestimate him because nowadays

724
00:39:14,580 --> 00:39:18,780
you could probably, you know, really do a number on the host of your favorite

725
00:39:18,780 --> 00:39:24,700
podcast, but one of his most infamous acts of oversimplification, he basically

726
00:39:24,700 --> 00:39:29,940
finally told Roman Britain, now Britain at the time was conquered by Rome.

727
00:39:30,860 --> 00:39:35,820
Besieged by raiders to quote, you know, look after yourself for their own defense.

728
00:39:36,180 --> 00:39:41,900
He was presiding over a system that literally couldn't afford to exist any longer.

729
00:39:42,260 --> 00:39:50,460
Now, wait, I just want to say, I know this sounds like exactly what Republican

730
00:39:50,460 --> 00:39:54,900
senators and congressmen are telling you right now, but wait, there's more.

731
00:39:54,980 --> 00:39:55,100
Yeah.

732
00:39:55,100 --> 00:39:57,380
So Rome is our didn't recover case.

733
00:39:58,060 --> 00:40:02,100
This is a civilization decline that clung to their complex loaded inflationary

734
00:40:02,100 --> 00:40:05,500
system and that shredded Republican norms until it broke.

735
00:40:05,580 --> 00:40:05,900
Yeah.

736
00:40:06,260 --> 00:40:11,460
So this isn't the only way a civilization ends, right?

737
00:40:11,500 --> 00:40:18,700
I mean, before we look at the recoveries, we have to clear away two popular myths.

738
00:40:19,180 --> 00:40:26,860
And look, these are stories we as podcasters and as historians love to tell about the collapse.

739
00:40:27,260 --> 00:40:33,860
But unfortunately for you listener, dear listener, hashtag dear listener, this

740
00:40:33,860 --> 00:40:35,460
episode has now come to an end.

741
00:40:35,660 --> 00:40:38,980
We are actually going to finish this episode next week.

742
00:40:39,940 --> 00:40:42,420
The next time you listen to this podcast, we're going to tune in.

743
00:40:42,660 --> 00:40:44,420
Will thank you so much for being here with me.

744
00:40:45,180 --> 00:40:46,380
Thank you for being here with me.

745
00:40:46,860 --> 00:40:47,460
Of course.

746
00:40:47,780 --> 00:40:53,060
I really hope you enjoy the information in this podcast and if you didn't, well,

747
00:40:53,100 --> 00:40:55,260
you know, we might not be the podcast for you.

748
00:40:56,060 --> 00:40:56,860
You might want to check out.

749
00:40:56,900 --> 00:40:57,340
Okay.

750
00:40:57,700 --> 00:41:00,180
That's something about history with Dan something.

751
00:41:00,260 --> 00:41:02,180
And, uh, what's the one?

752
00:41:03,180 --> 00:41:03,780
Dan Carl.

753
00:41:04,100 --> 00:41:08,140
Eating cereal with eating cereal with killers.

754
00:41:08,180 --> 00:41:08,620
I don't know.

755
00:41:09,260 --> 00:41:11,500
Anyway, I'm sure there's podcasts out there for you.

756
00:41:11,620 --> 00:41:13,220
If this wasn't isn't for you, great.

757
00:41:13,580 --> 00:41:15,980
If it is for you do me two favors.

758
00:41:16,420 --> 00:41:22,180
I would love for you to give us a five star rating on your podcasting app of choice and

759
00:41:22,180 --> 00:41:24,220
also share this episode with a friend.

760
00:41:24,220 --> 00:41:27,100
If you feel like they would really appreciate it.

761
00:41:27,300 --> 00:41:28,980
Will do you appreciate it?

762
00:41:29,820 --> 00:41:30,420
I certainly do.

763
00:41:30,420 --> 00:41:32,260
That's why I will certainly appreciates it.

764
00:41:32,260 --> 00:41:32,860
Exactly.

765
00:41:32,860 --> 00:41:37,500
Will is a poor, starving artist who certainly appreciates it.

766
00:41:38,060 --> 00:41:38,820
And we're all poor.

767
00:41:38,860 --> 00:41:39,500
And that's not true.

768
00:41:39,540 --> 00:41:40,820
We're not, we're not poor.

769
00:41:40,820 --> 00:41:42,180
We're not starving and we're not artists.

770
00:41:43,220 --> 00:41:45,740
We, we have one goal and it's to spread the truth.

771
00:41:46,380 --> 00:41:47,340
It's the spread the truth.

772
00:41:47,420 --> 00:41:53,060
It's to, it's to inform the average public in a way that isn't pretentious.

773
00:41:53,060 --> 00:41:54,460
We hope it's not too pretentious.

774
00:41:54,540 --> 00:42:02,500
If it is, you should absolutely send us an email, send it to spam@theoverlappodcast.com.

775
00:42:03,100 --> 00:42:04,660
They would love to hear it.

776
00:42:04,780 --> 00:42:06,780
It's file immediately file 13.

777
00:42:07,060 --> 00:42:11,500
No, seriously though, if you want to continue listening to our podcast, check us out on

778
00:42:11,500 --> 00:42:12,540
Apple podcasts.

779
00:42:12,540 --> 00:42:13,780
We're on Spotify as well.

780
00:42:14,100 --> 00:42:17,340
You can check us out on our website at F dot foundation.

781
00:42:17,340 --> 00:42:22,340
That's HTTPS colon slash slash F dot foundation.

782
00:42:22,580 --> 00:42:25,020
That's friends of the future foundation.

783
00:42:25,220 --> 00:42:25,820
That's us.

784
00:42:25,820 --> 00:42:30,420
We are friends of the future and we are the foundation for your news.

785
00:42:30,540 --> 00:42:31,180
That's weird.

786
00:42:31,660 --> 00:42:35,860
We're not a news podcast, but it felt right when I was like reading it out there.

787
00:42:37,260 --> 00:42:39,060
It rolled off the tongue.

788
00:42:39,060 --> 00:42:39,500
It did.

789
00:42:39,500 --> 00:42:40,420
It rolled off the tongue.

790
00:42:40,620 --> 00:42:46,180
Anyway, we will, we will be so happy to have you back next week to conclude our episode.

791
00:42:46,180 --> 00:42:50,420
They were talking about about upon whether or not declining Republics can be saved.

792
00:42:50,740 --> 00:42:52,620
Will, like I said, it's been a pleasure.

793
00:42:52,620 --> 00:42:54,380
It's so, it's so good to see it.

794
00:42:54,380 --> 00:42:56,260
So good to be here with you.

795
00:42:56,260 --> 00:43:00,340
And do you have anything else to say to our wonderful listeners?

796
00:43:01,300 --> 00:43:02,340
Just thank you.

797
00:43:02,500 --> 00:43:03,460
Thank you for sticking with us.

798
00:43:03,460 --> 00:43:07,340
Thanks for coming back and we enjoy this.

799
00:43:07,340 --> 00:43:08,860
So let us know if you enjoy it too.

800
00:43:09,220 --> 00:43:10,020
Yeah, of course.

801
00:43:10,540 --> 00:43:12,100
Same and peace.

802
00:43:12,140 --> 00:43:12,780
Please.

803
00:43:15,220 --> 00:43:16,380
We're begging, we're begging you.

804
00:43:16,700 --> 00:43:17,780
Please, please.

805
00:43:17,780 --> 00:43:18,020
Please.

806
00:43:18,060 --> 00:43:18,700
Please, please.

807
00:43:18,700 --> 00:43:22,700
? ?

808
00:43:22,700 --> 00:43:26,700
?

809
00:43:26,700 --> 00:43:30,700
?

810
00:43:30,700 --> 00:43:34,700
?

811
00:43:34,700 --> 00:43:38,700
?

812
00:43:38,700 --> 00:43:42,700
?

813
00:43:42,700 --> 00:43:46,700
?

814
00:43:46,700 --> 00:43:49,140
[MUSIC PLAYING]